Between 2015 and 2025, Canada experienced significant growth in immigration, with permanent resident admissions almost doubling from 271,000 to 485,000, and temporary residents increasing from 500,000 to over 2.5 million by 2024. However, in response to concerns about housing affordability and infrastructure strain, the government announced reduced targets for 2025 onwards.
Immigration Levels Plan Update
Canada’s immigration growth rate averaged 15% annually from 2016-2024, a stark contrast to the 4% rate from 2000-2015. The new immigration levels plan for 2025 stabilizes targets at 380,000 annually, marking a significant shift in Canada’s demographic and economic landscape.
Economic Impact Analysis
An examination of major economic indicators shows that maintaining 2015 immigration levels would have resulted in trade-offs, impacting GDP per capita, housing affordability, wage growth, labor market dynamics, and fiscal sustainability. These trade-offs highlight the complexities of Canada’s immigration policies.
Part I: The Immigration Surge (2015-2025)
The Scale of Change: The number of permanent resident admissions increased from 271,000 in 2015 to 485,000 by 2024, while temporary residents grew from 500,000 to over 2.5 million. Population growth driven by immigration accounted for over 90% of Canada’s growth since 2016.
- 2015: ~271,000 permanent resident admissions
- 2024: 485,000 admissions (target)
- 2025: 395,000 admissions (revised target)
- 2015: ~500,000 total temporary residents
- 2024: Over 2.5 million temporary residents
Policy Drivers
Canada’s immigration expansion was a deliberate policy choice, beginning in 2015. The government steadily increased immigration targets to address economic challenges such as labor shortages, an aging population, and GDP growth. However, in response to public concerns, the government announced significant cuts to immigration targets in October 2024.
Part II: Economic Indicators Under Current Reality (2015-2025)
GDP Growth: Canada’s real GDP growth averaged close to 2% annually over the past decade, positioning it as the second-fastest growing G7 economy. Despite strong aggregate GDP growth, real GDP per capita has declined, remaining near 2017 levels, highlighting the economic puzzle of Canada’s immigration expansion.
In conclusion, the decade of immigration expansion in Canada has presented both benefits and challenges, emphasizing the importance of strategic immigration policies for sustainable economic growth.
