Updated July 2026. March 2026 turned out to be a landmark month for Express Entry, with several draws hitting cutoffs and milestones not seen since category-based selection began. Here’s how it actually unfolded, and how it compared to what analysts were projecting going in.
What Actually Happened in March 2026
- March 2: PNP draw at CRS 710 — the lowest PNP cutoff of the year so far
- March 5: IRCC ran its first-ever Senior Manager category draw (Draw #402), issuing 250 ITAs at CRS 429
- March 17: CEC draw
- March 18: French-language proficiency draw — 4,000 ITAs at CRS 393, the seventeenth Express Entry selection of 2026
The March 18 French draw was a genuine milestone: CRS 393 was the lowest French-stream cutoff since category-based draws launched in 2023, and the first time any Express Entry round of any type dropped below 400 in over a year. By that point, the French-language category alone had issued 18,000 ITAs for the year — trailing only CEC in total volume.
How This Compared to What Was Predicted
Going into March, forecasts (based on the pace of the year’s first two months) expected:
- CEC: projected CRS 500-506 — actual Q1/Q2 2026 CEC draws ran 507-518, slightly higher than forecast
- PNP: projected CRS 690-720 — actual draws spanned 710-802 (including the standard 600-point nomination bonus), a wider and generally higher range than expected
- French-language proficiency: projected CRS 380-420 — the actual March 18 cutoff of 393 landed comfortably within that range
The one thing no forecast anticipated: an entirely new category. The first-ever Senior Manager draw on March 5 wasn’t on anyone’s radar going into the month, underscoring that category-based selection can introduce new invitation streams with little advance notice.
What This Means Going Forward
If you’re tracking Express Entry trends, March 2026 confirmed two things: French-language proficiency remains one of the most accessible categories for candidates who qualify (CLB/NCLC 7+ in all four skill areas), and CEC and PNP cutoffs can run higher than pure trend-extrapolation suggests once real draws happen. New categories can also appear with little warning — worth checking IRCC’s official rounds page regularly rather than relying solely on projections.
Source: IRCC, Express Entry: Rounds of invitations.
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