New Express Entry Draw Predictions And Expectations For March 2026

Canadianow- Editor

Updated on March 3, 2026, 9:03 AM EST (Toronto Time): March 2026 has had a promising start for Express Entry, with the first draw of the month taking place on March 2. The trend indicates a continued high pace of invitations throughout March.

Express Entry Draws in 2026

Between January 1 and March 2, 2026, Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada (IRCC) has conducted a total of 11 Express Entry draws.

    • Total ITAs issued in 2026 through March 2: 35,112

The recent PNP draw on March 2 had a CRS cut-off of 710, the lowest PNP threshold seen in 2026 despite fewer invitations to apply (ITAs). This indicates a smaller pool of provincial nominees in the system, possibly due to provinces still processing their 2026 nominations.

Current Status of the Express Entry Pool (as of March 1, 2026)

As of March 1, 2026, the Express Entry pool consists of 232,534 candidates, a decrease from around 235,695 in mid-February. Here is the breakdown:

    • 601-1200: 25,828
    • 451-600: 14,031
    • 491-500: 13,321
    • 481-490: 12,678
    • 471-480: 15,415
    • 461-470: 15,099
    • 451-460: 15,167

Key insight: The 501-600 range has 14,031 candidates, a decrease of 2,761 from mid-February, suggesting potential drops in CEC cut-offs below 500.

Predictions for March 2026 by Program and Category

Canadian Experience Class (CEC)

Predicted draws in March: 2

Predicted ITAs per draw: 5,000-7,000

Projected CRS cut-off range: 500-506

CEC remains a primary pathway for IRCC to transition temporary residents to permanent residents. Recent draws indicate a declining CRS trend, with potential cut-offs around 500 in March.

Provincial Nominee Program (PNP)

Predicted draws in March: 2

Predicted ITAs per draw: 250-700

Projected CRS cut-off range: 690-720

PNP draws are expected to increase as provinces meet their expanded nomination targets under the 2026-2028 Immigration Levels Plan. March might see lower PNP activity as nomination pipelines are being rebuilt.

French Language Proficiency

Predicted draws: 1-2

Predicted ITAs per draw: 5,000-8,500

Projected CRS cut-off range: 380-420

French language draws have seen significant growth in 2026, with more opportunities for candidates proficient in French. Candidates must demonstrate language skills at CLB/NCLC level 7 or higher in all four areas.

Healthcare and Social Services Occupations

Predicted draws: 0-1

Predicted ITAs per draw: 3,000

Projected CRS cut-off range: 450-470

Healthcare occupations continue to be a priority for IRCC in 2026.

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